Injury-prone Byron Buxton isn’t worth the fantasy baseball risk

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When the phrases “upside” or “potential” are thrown round within the fantasy world, one typically thinks of the 20-year-old prospect on the cusp of breaking into the majors.

You don’t instantly consider the 28-year-old who was the No. 2-overall decide in 2012. That, nonetheless, is the place we nonetheless appear to be with Minnesota’s Byron Buxton: dreaming about what may (or ought to) be.

Roto Rage doesn’t have to promote you on Buxton’s skill — he’s a first-round expertise with all of the instruments that will help you win your fantasy league. That was evident in the way in which Buxton completed the 2021 season. Over his last 26 video games, he hit .314 with 9 homers, 13 RBIs, 27 runs, 4 steals and a 1.061 OPS. He completed the season with the second-lowest strikeout proportion (24.4) of his profession, in addition to career-best marks in common (.306), homers (19) and OPS (1.005) in simply 61 video games.

And therein lies the issue.

Buxton’s numbers all the time must be justified by how nicely he did in a sure variety of video games (often a comparatively small quantity, like 61). We’re all the time speaking concerning the “what ifs,” his “upside” or his immense expertise, however none of that wins fantasy titles.

With a median draft place of 62.02, in keeping with Fantasy Alarm, Buxton is being drafted as a top-20 outfielder. That’s an enormous value for a participant who has performed in additional than 100 video games in a season simply as soon as (2017).

Byron Buxton

AP

Not together with 2015 (when he received his first style of the bigs over 46 video games and hit .209 with a .576 OPS) or the COVID-shortened 2020 season (when he hit .254 with 13 homers and a .844 OPS in 39 video games), Buxton has performed in 408 video games (81.6 per season) within the different 5 years and averaged 297 plate appearances.

Sorry, that’s not sufficient to justify the value tag.

Anticipating the speedy Buxton to play a full season is like anticipating your canine to reply with something apart from a bark or puppy-dog eyes when requested why they peed in your rug. Anticipating his season to look something like his 162-game projections from 2019-21, in keeping with Baseball Reference (.277, 36 HRs, 91 RBIs, 22 SBs, 101 runs, .897 OPS), is a pipe dream.

Tyler O’Neill

AP

So, are you able to justify utilizing a fifth- or sixth-round decide on a participant who would possibly play half of Minnesota’s video games? Not when you might have the potential of St. Louis’ Tyler O’Neill (61.12) or the White Sox’s Eloy Jimenez (60.14) being accessible in the identical spot. Not when you possibly can wait three rounds to snag Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds (94.36), who has performed in 134 or extra video games (and hit over .300) in his two non-COVID seasons, or bounce-back candidates within the type of two former MVPs — Christian Yelich (93.36) and Cody Bellinger (96.48).

Not when you possibly can guarantee your roster doesn’t have holes elsewhere by taking a top-10 shortstop, akin to new Tiger Javier Baez (67) or new Ranger Corey Seager (67.96), or bolstering your rotation with a top-20 beginning pitcher, akin to Jack Flaherty (70.2) or Jose Berrios (72.68).

Byron Buxton

Getty Pictures

Minnesota might need invested seven years and $100 million in Buxton this offseason, however until they secretly agreed to make use of a few of that cash to assist Buxton bear surgical procedure that may make him half-man, half-machine (a la RoboCop or Cyborg), you’re nonetheless coping with the identical injury-prone participant who has been burning fantasy house owners since 2016.

Buxton’s expertise is tantalizing, however he's the poster boy for high-risk fantasy choices. Although the reward could possibly be large, Roto Rage is steering clear till he proves he can keep wholesome.

Workforce Identify of the Week

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Outfielders

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., SD
2. Juan Soto, Was
3. Ronald Acuna Jr., Atl
4. Bryce Harper, Phi
5. Kyle Tucker, Hou
6. Mookie Betts, LAD
7. Mike Trout, LAA
8. Aaron Decide, NYY
9. Luis Robert, CWS
10. Yordan Alvarez, Hou
11. Teoscar Hernandez, Tor
12. Starling Marte, NYM
13. Cedric Mullins, Bal
14. George Springer, Tor
15. Eloy Jimenez, CWS
16. Tyler O’Neill, StL
17. Nick Castellanos, FA
18. Whit Merrifield,KC
19. Randy Arozarena, TB
20. Byron Buxton, Min
21. Ketel Marte,Ari
22. Bryan Reynolds, Pit
23. J.D. Martinez, Bos
24. Brandon Lowe., TB
25. Cody Bellinger, LAD
26. Jesse Winker, Cin
27. Christian Yelich, Mil
28. Giancarlo Stanton, NYY
29. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Tor
30. Kris Bryant, FA
31. Mitch Haniger, Sea
32. Ryan Mountcastle, Bal
33. Jared Walsh=LAA
34. Trent Grisham=SD
35. Franmil Reyes, Cle
36. Tommy Edman, StL
37. Kyle Schwarber, FA
38. Austin Meadows ,TB
39. Jarred Kelenic, Sea
40. Josh Bell, Was
41. Alex Verdugo, Bos
42. Chris Taylor, LAD
43. Michael Conforto, FA
44. Avisail Garcia, Mia
45. Hunter Renfroe, Mil
46. Andrew Benintendi, KC
47. Joey Gallo, NYY
48. Ramon Laureano, Oak
49. Adolis Garcia, Tex
50. Alex Kirilloff, Min
51. Jorge Soler, FA
52. Dylan Carlson, StL
53. Austin Hays, Bal
54. Michael Brantley, Hou
55. Eddie Rosario, FA
56. Robbie Grossman, Det
57. Charlie Blackmon, Col
58. Ian Happ, ChC
59. Adam Duvall, Atl
60. Raimel Tapia, Col
61. Akil Baddoo, Det
62. AJ Pollock, LAD
63. Daulton Varsho, Ari
64. Jo Adell, LAA
65. Andrew Vaughn, CWS
66. Mark Canha, NYM
67. Tommy Pham, FA
68. Myles Straw, Cle
69. Marcell Ozuna, Atl
70. Anthony Santander, Bal
71. Harrison Bader, StL
72. Gavin Lux, LAD
73. Wil Myers, SD
74. Kiké Hernandez, Bos
75. Max Kepler, Min
76. Amed Rosario, Cle
77. Mike Yastrzemski, SF
78. Kyle Lewis, Sea
79. Brandon Nimmo, NYM
80. Jeff McNeil, NYM
81. Garrett Hampson, Col
82. Adam Frazier, Sea
83. Randal Grichuk, Tor
84. Jesus Sanchez, Mia
85. Tyler Naquin, Cin
86. David Peralta, Ari
87. Manuel Margot, TB
88. Josh Rojas, Ari
89. Patrick Knowledge, ChC
90. Joc Pederson, FA
91. Andrew McCutchen, FA
92. Cavan Biggio, Tor
93. Lorenzo Cain, Mil
94. Lane Thomas, Was
95. Luis Arraez, Min
96. Connor Joe, Col
97. Rafael Ortega, ChC
98. Dominic Smith, NYM
99. LaMonte Wade Jr., SF
100. Vidal Brujan, TB
101. Garrett Cooper, Mia
102. Willie Calhoun, Tex
103. Pavin Smith, Ari
104. Jarren Duran, Bos
105. Nick Senzel, Cin
106. Victor Robles, Was
107. Brandon Marsh, LAA
108. Ben Gamel, Pit
109. Yoshi Tsutsugo, Pit
110. Harold Ramirez, ChC
111. Michael A. Taylor, KC
112. Hunter Dozier, KC
113. Kole Calhoun, Tex
114. Gavin Sheets, CWS
115. Sam Hilliard, Col
116. Aaron Hicks, NYY
117. Julio Rodriguez, Sea
118. Kyle Isbel, KC
119. Bryan De La Cruz, Mia
120. Dylan Moore, Sea

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